Construction forecast to fall by nearly 4% next year
Construction output is now expected to fall by 3.9% in 2023 after economists at the Construction Products Association sharply downgraded forecasts
The big downward revision from -0.4% forecast in the summer is mainly due to the impact of a wider economic recession, exacerbated by the effect of the ‘mini Budget’, and the consequent fallout from recent political uncertainty.
The wider uncertainty around the UK economy means that demand for private housing new build and private housing repair, maintenance, and improvement is expected to fall.
Other key construction sectors such as commercial and infrastructure are also expected to be affected by increasing concerns over construction cost inflation, which are likely to hinder project viability.
Key points
• Industrial output to rise by 20.4% in 2022 and a further 3.1% in 2023 before falling by 1.5% in 2024
• Infrastructure output to increase 5.2% in 2022, 1.6% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024
• Private housing output rises by 3.0% in 2022 before a 9.0% fall in 2023 and recovering by 1.0% in 2024
• Private housing repair, maintenance and improvement to fall by 4.0% in 2022 and 9.0% in 2023 before growth of 1.0% in 2024
updated: 07/11/2022
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